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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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Showing 1746 to 1750 news of total 6871 |
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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