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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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