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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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Showing 1766 to 1770 news of total 6871 |
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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