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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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