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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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