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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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