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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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