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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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