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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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Showing 1736 to 1740 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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