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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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