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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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