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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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