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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
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Showing 1686 to 1690 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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