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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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