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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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