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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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