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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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