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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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Showing 1646 to 1650 news of total 6871 |
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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