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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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