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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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