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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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