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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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