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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
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