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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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