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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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