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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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