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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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Showing 1596 to 1600 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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