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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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