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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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