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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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