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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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