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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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