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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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