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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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