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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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