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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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