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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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