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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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