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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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