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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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