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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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