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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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