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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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