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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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