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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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