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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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