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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
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Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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Showing 1446 to 1450 news of total 6871 |
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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