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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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Showing 1441 to 1445 news of total 6871 |
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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