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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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