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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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